Today is the second half of the steel market rebound the most sharp day, the highest rise in the iron ore, rose more4.5%。

The in stock side is not far behind. The ex-factory price of steel billets in Qian'an area of Tangshan has been raised three times, with a cumulative increase.70 yuan, offer 2940 yuan/ton.

The oversold hot roll rose significantly, and Guangdong Le rose sharply from the hot roll.100 yuan/ton, rebar, cold rolled, medium plate, strip steel, section steel and steel pipe also increased by 50 yuan/ton

market capital, fromIn terms of actual issuance since August, new special bonds have been issued at 414.8 billion billion yuan, accounting for about 87% of the planned issuance in August, more than about 85% in July.

Combined with the 100-year survey of the sample construction site funding rate data, last week's value was62.13 percent, up 0.19 percentage points from the previous week. Therefore, from the current downstream funds in place and the recent issuance of new special bonds, the improvement of funds is emerging.

Last week, the profitability of steel companies was4.76 percent, down 0.43 percentage points from the previous month. Most steel mills are at a loss in production profits. A number of steel mills due to the order situation is not ideal, production losses, the blast furnace to reduce production maintenance.

At present, the profits of steel mills have not seen any signs of a significant recovery, and it is expected that the iron will remain daily in the next two weeks.A slight downward trend below 2.3 million tons.

According to the overhaul plan, the number of steel mills cutting production due to losses continued to increase this week,In August, the blast furnace overhaul affected a total of 4.07 million tons of molten iron production, a significant increase from July. It is expected that the molten iron production will have room for further decline by the end of August.

According to our estimates, the current East China Electric Furnace Plant flat power production tons of steel losses nearly.144 yuan/ton, Gudian basically lost nearly 20 yuan/ton. Scrap steel fell one after another, this week electric furnace profits have been significantly repaired, some areas of electric furnace plants have resumed production signs.

Since August, the output of rebar has continued to decrease, remaining at about 1.66 million tons in the past three weeks, and the rate of decline has expanded, even lower than the output around the Spring Festival in recent years, which is also the low level in recent years.

Currently, with the continuous decline in scrap prices, the cost of rebar valley electricity has fallenAbout 3200 yuan, the cost of flat electricity dropped to about 3350 yuan. The blast furnace steel plant due to the decline in iron ore is not big, the cost is still around 3450 yuan.

In terms of inventory,Construction steel inventories continued to decline. At present, the production enthusiasm of steel mills is not high, and the inventory of steel mills is low due to the continuous decline in production. Early due to market price reduction promotion, price for volume, social inventory also remained low.

The old national standard rebar depot in Yunnan and Guizhou is about to be completed, and only the factory depot is left.286000 tons and 58000 tons of social stock are expected to be fully digested by the end of the month. In addition, it is estimated that the old national standard rebar resources in Sichuan and Chongqing will also be cleared by the end of August.

According to our previous statistics, the relative inventory in East China, South China and North China is lower than that in Southwest China according to the ratio of inventory to sales, which means that the old national standard rebar inventory in these regions will also be inAll cleared at the end of August.

The previous old and new GB conversion event did accelerate the pace of price decline, mainly because the overall fundamentals of steel are weak, the impact of panic is greater than the actual impact, but the impact of the old and new GB conversion has gradually faded.

The inventory level of the five materials is in the neutral range, and the structural contradiction of the thread hot roll is still intensifying. In the process of substantial production reduction of finished materials, there is still no sign of hot rolls going to the warehouse. It is expected that in the next two weeks, it will be difficult to see the trend of going to the warehouse at the time of resumption of production on the hot roll rolling line. However, inUnder the expectation of the peak season in September, the demand or gradual improvement will make the inventory continue to decline.

Demand end this week to the low season switching stage, construction steel and plate are showing signs of terminal take goods, but speculative demand is still weak, pay attention to continue to observe the speed of recovery in the peak season.

Judging from the actual situation in the second half of this year, with the gradual completion of real estate and infrastructure projects under construction, the number of new projects started is very small. In particular, housing construction projects, new construction area continues to be maintained.With a year-on-year decline of more than 20%, the situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a substantial increase in construction steel demand is almost zero.

Although there is not much hope for the growth of demand for rebar and other construction steel, the golden nine silver ten is definitely the most suitable season for construction throughout the year,The demand for rebar in September increased to a certain extent from July and August, which is a high probability event.

Besides, the biggest drag on the steel market in the early stage of the steel varieties hot roll, into late August, some manufacturing factories high temperature vacation is about to end and usher in the resumption of work, there will be a phase of procurement demand release, manufacturing terminal demand will be marginal improvement.

Hot roll prices look at exports, in fact, we do not have to worry too much about hot roll exports. The first is the direct export, hot roll prices fell sharply, export competitiveness further enhanced.

Once the price of hot rolls is stable, traders who destroyed orders in the early stage will enter the market again, and the export of hot rolls may have a relatively large volume process. In addition, according to the publishedIn July, the growth rate of automobiles, household appliances and ships exceeded 20%, and the indirect export of hot rolls and other plates remained very strong.

In short, the worst period of hot roll demand this year has passed, and a period of restorative growth in demand is coming. In the early stage, the difference between the coils dropped to only20 yuan, extremely abnormal, then the hot roll will have a poor market to repair the spiral roll, which will be stronger than the rebar.

Overall, as raw materials continue to make profits, steel mill profits bottom out, this round of negative feedback into the end, in the futureAfter 1-2 weeks of molten iron bottoms out, this round of negative feedback may be completely over. At present, the upward end of the material has a flat power cost of about 3350 supply release pressure, down there is demand peak season inflection point support.