Today's steel market weak operation mainly. in stock most steel grades fell slightly in 10 yuan, while the period steel turned from red to green, and finally recorded a slight decline. From the perspective of turnover, it is more difficult to ship in the afternoon, the market confidence is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

From the current point of view, the market has been repeated. Although there is no major fluctuation, it has been walking in a small range for more than a week. Whether it is the in stock or the disk, it has shown a market trend that makes the market uncomfortable and tangled. The market for many areas has no basis trading, hedging space. Therefore, the market will continue to accumulate chips and consume market patience in the absence of a major breakthrough.

In recent days, news of crude steel reduction has been continuously reported: at present, the target provinces have been identified, with Fujian having 3.5 million tons (announced), Hebei having 1500-17 million tons (confirmed), Shanxi having 2 million tons (confirmed), and other regions being updated one after another.

Yesterday, we interpreted the regulation and control of crude steel in the live broadcast room. Today, we will say it again. It also makes our members and brothers pay enough attention to it. The reduction of crude steel involves the whole steel industry chain, which affects the trend of the steel market and the steel raw material market.

1, according to the document, in addition to the regular mentioned protection of electric furnaces, pressure reduction of high energy consumption, unfavorable regulation, backward quality of process equipment, etc., this time also mentioned the pressure reduction of exports of primary steel products more enterprises.

2. On the output data, the document proposes to jointly track the crude steel output with the electricity consumption department and analyze the matching between the crude steel output and electricity consumption to confirm the authenticity of the data. If the data is falsified, the crude steel control target will be deducted twice according to the false part.

3, according to the document shows that the national crude steel production target task has basically been issued, and Fujian Province, the task of pressure reduction is larger.

4. At present, in addition to Fujian Province, the provinces that have confirmed the reduction of crude steel include 1500-17 million tons in Hebei, 2 million tons in Shanxi, 2 million tons in Shandong and 5 million tons in Jiangsu. It seems that the reduction is very strong.

5, this year's crude steel reduction for iron ore and coke, coking coal is a positive bad news, but for scrap, is a big good news.

Judging from the impact of weekly maintenance, this week (June 15 to June 21), the impact of molten iron brought by blast furnace maintenance was 1.0474 million tons, an increase of 5600 tons from last week's maintenance. Next week (June 22 to June 28), the impact of molten iron caused by blast furnace overhaul will be 911200 tons, 136200 tons less than this week. The molten iron is still in a rising state.

From the fundamental point of view, into the off-season demand for building materials significantly weakened, but hot roll and other plate products demand is still strong, so the production enthusiasm of steel mills has not weakened, last week, iron production appeared more than expected rebound, the cost of steel raw materials under the material support is strong.

The off-season market is mainly driven by macro expectations, but from the macro side, foreign interest rate cut expectations are still wavering, and there is no new bullish story to tell at home for the time being.

Recently, the news of crude steel reduction has been released continuously, probably because the information has been repeated in recent years. The market has not seen real red-headed documents and actual strength, and has not responded much to the information of crude steel reduction.

From a fundamental point of view, last week, iron water rebounded sharply to 2.39 million tons, this week some steel mills in Xinjiang resumed production superimposed on Baosteel Zhanjiang 5050 cubic blast furnace resumption, it is expected that this week's average iron water production may exceed 2.4 million tons. After the loss of cost-effective scrap steel, the high daily consumption of long and short processes fell back.

On the supply side, the focus is on the impact of the crude steel production reduction policy on the pace of production on the supply side. Inventory end, off-season accumulation continued, and billet inventory continued to accumulate, rebar accumulation pressure is greater than the hot roll, the overall inventory level is higher than the same period last year.

Roll plate end, supply remains high, exports continue to improve, inventory has not yet formed a large accumulation trend, plate demand is still resilient. Off-season fundamental trading weights may gradually decline, macro and expected weights are magnified, still need to pay attention to the July meeting of the policy expectations on steel prices.

Crude steel regulation news hit again, however, the current iron ore transactions are still relatively hot, in the maintenance of blast furnace still have plans to resume production, has not yet tracked to have blast furnace due to production reduction and start maintenance action, we suggest that the crude steel regulation should be treated in a cautious manner, to the actual production reduction action of steel mills.

From the current point of view, the driving factors are not clear enough. Before the market has a general direction, funds and market sentiment are relatively cautious and always repeat. In the next step, the impact of macro policies and steel production reduction programs may increase.

At present, the black market is still fragile, short-term ups and downs of the lack of conditions, resulting in repeated shocks of the grinding market. In the past two days, the market has been greatly affected by industrial policies and overseas factors, especially inspections based on capacity replacement, environmental protection data, and crude steel production control policies, etc., which will still have an impact. Attention needs to be paid to the impact of these factors on the volatility of the market.