Recently, the black commodity market has shown a complex trend of fluctuating adjustments with hidden upward momentum, driven by policy orientation, cost support, and market sentiment.

From the high-level strategic deployment of energy transformation to the marginal impact of infrastructure policies and the leading performance of the coal and coke market, the linkage effects of various links are gradually emerging, laying the groundwork for the future market trend.

I. Policy Setting: Energy Transformation and Industrial Upgrading Lay a Long-Term Positive Foundation

7 Month 8 Day, high-level officials during an inspection in Shanxi province clearly pointed out that promoting energy transformation and industrial upgrading will be the core task, while ensuring the national coal supply.

This instruction has defined a clear path for the development of the coal and related industries: On the one hand, promoting the coal industry to move towards high-end development, upgrading from low-end fuel supply to high-value-added products;

On the other hand, accelerating the construction of a new energy system, while consolidating the country's position as a base for energy raw materials, vigorously developing new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydrogen energy, and promoting moderate diversification of the industrial structure.

The market's interpretation of this policy is generally positive, believing that it will be a major positive for the coal market. Based on historical experience, coal prices often maintain an upward cycle of approximately 2 months after high-level inspections, and the market expects this trend to continue this time.

More importantly, the potential increase in coal costs driven by policy will not only directly affect coal prices themselves but will also transmit through the industrial chain to the downstream steel market, forming cost support.

II. Infrastructure Policy: Limited Demand Stimulus Under a Stable Development Pattern

In contrast to the positive orientation of energy policy, infrastructure policies show a stable development pattern.

7 Month 9 Day, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized that it will continue to follow the principle of moderately advancing, but not excessively advancing, the construction of modern infrastructure. From a practical perspective, China's 6 axis 7 corridor 8 The completion rate of the main framework of the comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network has exceeded 90% , and the national economic arteries are basically complete, which means that the era of large-scale transportation network construction is nearing its end, and subsequent work will mainly focus on filling gaps and optimizing existing infrastructure.

Therefore, although the policy direction of moderate advancement remains unchanged, the marginal stimulus to the demand for steel and other bulk commodities is expected to be limited.

This situation means that the demand side of the steel market is unlikely to experience explosive growth, and the market trend will depend more on cost-side drivers and market sentiment.

III. Industry Ecology and External Environment: Market Sentiment Helps Market Recovery

In addition to direct policy and supply and demand factors, improvements in the industry ecology and positive signals from external markets are also injecting momentum into the black commodity market.

Recently, 33 construction companies jointly issued a proposal calling for abandoning vicious competition and promoting industry transformation. This " anti-involution ” " action is gradually spreading to multiple fields, helping to improve the industry ecology and push product prices back to a reasonable range, providing positive guidance to the market sentiment of black commodities.

At the same time, the recovery of the stock market has also played a boosting role. The Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3500 points after an eight-month absence, A shares, and the three major stock indexes rose collectively, boosting overall market risk appetite. This positive sentiment has spread to the bulk commodity market, further strengthening the upward expectation of black commodities.

IV. Market Reaction: Leading Rise in Coal and Coke Highlights Cost Support Effect

Currently, the main force driving the steel market has shifted from the demand side to the cost side, with the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices being the core driver.

The main contract of coking coal, driven by long positions, broke through 60 the key pressure level of the daily moving average, setting a new high in the rebound, with a short-term target directly at 900 yuan;

The linkage effect in the spot market is also significant, 7 Month 9 Day, in the online auction of coking coal in the Lvyang market, the average transaction price of Lishi low-sulfur main coke reached 1123 yuan, up 6 Month 25 yuan from 123 Day. Behind the widening of the increase, there are both changes in supply expectations caused by the suspension of bidding by specific coal mines and the continued fermentation of market sentiment.

The simultaneous rise of coking coal and coke has created a clear spillover effect, not only strengthening its own price trend but also providing substantial support for downstream steel prices through the cost transmission mechanism, becoming an important highlight of the current black bulk market.

From the perspective of the supply and demand fundamentals, the arrival of the summer power consumption peak has driven a surge in demand for thermal coal, and the speed of inventory digestion has significantly accelerated; at the same time, the decline in imported coal has further eased the supply pressure in the domestic market, and the positive changes on both the supply and demand sides have jointly consolidated the support for coal prices.

V. Market Outlook: Still Room for Price Increases After Fluctuation Adjustment

Currently, black commodities (especially steel) are still in a fluctuating adjustment phase, with limited price fluctuations. In the short term, affected by seasonal demand pressure, the market delivery pace is slightly slow.

However, overall, factors supporting the subsequent market are accumulating: The upstream coal and coke sector is showing a phased strengthening under the dual drive of policy expectations and supply and demand improvements, and cost support is continuously strengthening; the industry " anti-involution ” and the recovery of the stock market stabilize market sentiment; the gradual release of positive policies will also inject confidence into the market.

Although the current steel price increase is limited, under the combined effect of multiple positive factors, the subsequent increase of 200 yuan is very likely.

For market participants, it is necessary to pay close attention to the implementation effect of policies, the sustainability of the coal and coke price trend, and the seasonal changes in downstream demand, and seize potential upward opportunities in the fluctuating adjustment.